Maple Leafs vs Senators Odds, Spread, and Total
The Toronto Maple Leafs will get a second chance to eliminate the Ottawa Senators in this best-of-seven Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series. The Maple Leafs lead the series three games to…
TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 29: Matthew Knies #23 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Ottawa Senators during the second period in Game Five of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 29, 2025 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
The Toronto Maple Leafs will get a second chance to eliminate the Ottawa Senators in this best-of-seven Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series.
The Maple Leafs lead the series three games to two. For the most part, they have been in control. They were up 3-0 in the series, with consistent scoring and strong defense that allowed two goals or fewer in each of those wins. Toronto also benefited from some puck luck, with two of those victories coming in overtime. However, their defense is now trending downward, and they were completely outplayed in Game 5.
The Senators are back in the series and confident after forcing a Game 6. They won Game 5 by a score of 4-0. After a scoreless first period, Ottawa scored in the second and added three more goals in the third. Despite being outshot 29-19 and outhit 40-25, the Senators capitalized on their limited chances. Linus Ullmark was named the first star with 29 saves.
Spread
- Maple Leafs +1.5 (-268)
- Senators -1.5 (+230)
Moneyline
- Maple Leafs -+100
- Senators -113
Total
- OVER 5.5 (+102)
- UNDER 5.5 (-118)
*The above data was collected on May 1, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 15 games.
- Toronto is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games.
- Toronto is 3-7 SU in its last ten games against Ottawa.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Ottawa's last ten games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Ottawa's last six games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Ottawa's last nine games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Injury Reports
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Jani Hakanpaa, D - Injured reserve
Ottawa Senators
- Hayden Hodgson, RW - Out
Maple Leafs vs Senators Predictions and Picks
The Maple Leafs are slowly repeating history. Toronto has lost six of its past seven first-round playoff appearances, several of which involved blown series leads. In Game 5, the Maple Leafs were at home, had plenty of offensive zone time, power play opportunities, and quality scoring chances, but still came up empty. Toronto's top players had minus-three and minus-four ratings, and it seemed like the team entered the game expecting an easy win. For the first time in this series, the Maple Leafs failed to score three goals, and their puck luck appears to be fading.
The Senators have now earned two very different wins. They snapped their overtime losing streak with a victory on home ice in Game 4, finally starting strong and playing with a lead. In Game 5, they again played from ahead and delivered one of their best performances of the series. Ottawa's penalty kill has gone a perfect 7-for-7 in their two wins, and their defensive identity is beginning to take shape. The Senators will aim to stick to that winning formula as they look to tie the series at home.
Out of nowhere, the Senators have seized full momentum in this series and have finally put a stop to the Maple Leafs' consistent scoring. Ottawa's top lines simply outplayed Toronto's on the road. Three games have been close, and both teams have earned blowout wins. The Senators have some puck luck on their side and will look to win Game 6 with another strong defensive effort.
