Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder: Odds, Spread, and Moneyline
Oddsmakers are putting hefty favorite’s odds on high seeds in the NBA playoffs, and the underdogs keep scoring more upset wins to soak Las Vegas like a dishrag. The trend…
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – MAY 7: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets attempts a shot in front of Isaiah Hartenstein of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half of game two of the Western Conference semifinals at Paycom Center on May 7, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)
Oddsmakers are putting hefty favorite's odds on high seeds in the NBA playoffs, and the underdogs keep scoring more upset wins to soak Las Vegas like a dishrag. The trend was broken by Oklahoma City covering Game 2's point spread easily to tie Denver at one win each in the Western Conference semifinals. Weirdly, it's the aftermath of OKC's big win in which bookmakers are finally giving props to the Denver Nuggets.
Denver is merely a four-point underdog for tonight's Game 3 at 10 p.m. Eastern Time, despite the home team's epic losing margin from the last game played in Oklahoma City. OKC manufactured nearly 80 points in the first half alone in Wednesday's 149-106 romp for the #1 bracket seed. Nikola Jokic, not to be confused with the rookie "Nikola Topic" from the Nuggets' not-so-topical injury report, was held to 17 points in Game 2, less than half the output of his phenomenal Game 1 effort.
Is it the atmosphere of Ball Arena that's got Denver's underdog odds alive and kicking? Or did the Nugs appear to be resting and regrouping by late in the second quarter of Wednesday's blowout loss, planning to take the court fresh-legged for another upset bid, and a chance to lead the series once more?
Spread
- Nuggets +5.5 (-104)
- Thunder -5.5 (-109)
Moneyline
- Nuggets +192
- Thunder -206
Total
- Over 232 (-110)
- Under 233 (-118)
*The above data was collected on May 9, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Betting Trends
- The OKC Thunder are 9-1 in their last 10 games
- Oklahoma City is 5-0 in its last five games on the road.
- OKC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine contests in Denver.
- Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games.
- Totals have gone over in all five of Denver's last five games.
Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Injury Reports
Denver Nuggets
- Shooting Guard Nikola Topic remains out for the playoffs with a knee injury.
OKC Thunder
- None
Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Predictions and Picks
Oklahoma City has discovered one way to slow The Joker down, and that's to foul him out. Jokic's sizable minutes "resting" during Game 2 were motivated by the Serbian superstar's personal fouls more than any grand strategy. It didn't make a difference to OKC's blowout, but it could matter a lot in a closer Game 3.
Jokic's foul numbers are soaring in the playoffs after a season of clean basketball. "In Game 2, Jokic committed four fouls in the third quarter to end his night and foul out for the first time this season," reports Ivan White of Sports Illustrated. "The Thunder's ability to get him into foul trouble has been an intriguing development throughout the beginning of the series and could loom large as the series progresses."
Las Vegas is whiffing on the fact that OKC used a lot of substitutes of the Thunder's own in Game 2. Trash time is what it is, but the fresh starters of Game 3 will produce a Thunder cover against the spread.
